tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19832077.post5640772814507555984..comments2023-07-18T00:26:08.773-07:00Comments on Tom Pisello: The ROI Guy: Frugalnomics in Effect - Gartner predicts 5.5% decline in IT spending for 2015Tom Pisellohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07209727039270770884noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19832077.post-5392153885372509442015-08-03T05:05:48.778-07:002015-08-03T05:05:48.778-07:00Jonah,
Not sure what you perceived as false in my...Jonah,<br /><br />Not sure what you perceived as false in my post..... but always up for a good discussion.<br /><br />I provided the link to the research, and indeed, Gartner is blaming the strong US dollar for the decline this time.<br /><br />But you will notice I also posted links not just to this latest forecast, but to many earlier ones. <br /><br />For the past 7 or so annual forecasts, Gartner publishes overly optimistic spending figures going into the new year, then adjusts mid year by about half the initial expectation. And why the declines in forecasts? Spin the wheel of prediction excuses.... including a weak dollar not too long ago (in direct contradiction to today's reasoning). Again, we see this trend. So how can Gartner be so consistently off in their estimates.<br /><br />The issue? There has been a fundamental change in IT decision making, and Gartner is not baking this in. We used to have 5-10% annual increases back in the day(run up to the tech bubble) ..... now, 2% growth is the norm, and the fact that the economy is currently growing and we have had a decline in their index .... this is stunning regardless of dollar value. <br /><br />There has been a Tectonic shift with as a service / IT as a utility, a trend to do more tech for less, and the rise of business unit / shadow spendingTom Pisellohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07209727039270770884noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19832077.post-3881695318434441832015-08-01T08:26:37.136-07:002015-08-01T08:26:37.136-07:00I just had to post this since this is completely f...I just had to post this since this is completely false. The research within the post also has much more detailed analysis. I am a Gartner client so I read the research note. You can see some other public data here:<br /><br />http://www.gartner.com/technology/research/it-spending-forecast/ <br /> <br />It was declining at 1.5% and that was revised to declining by 5.5%<br /> <br />The reason for the revision " The rising U.S. dollar is chiefly responsible for the change. "<br /> <br />"The Gartner forecast for worldwide IT spending in U.S. dollar values for 2015 shrank by 4.2 percentage points, down from the negative 1.3% growth forecast in last quarter's update. This is not a crash, even if it looks like one; the recent rapid rise in the value of the U.S. dollar against most currencies has put a currency shock into the global IT market. Taking out the impact of exchange rate movements, the corresponding constant-currency growth figure is 2.5%, down from 3.1% in last quarter's update (see Note 1 for an explanation of current dollars versus constant dollars). Such are the illusions that large swings in the value of the dollar versus other currencies can create.<br />This illusion, however, only masks bigger issues that have real market implications. Compared with last quarter, all five segments (devices, data center systems, enterprise software, IT services and communications services) have revisions to 2015 underlying constant-currency growth due to U.S. dollar shifts."<br /><br />Software is barely negative, services are in fact positive. Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17254567764700269278noreply@blogger.com